“Even though both Japanese companies have built on American legacies with phenomenal fuel economy and powertrains — including electrification via hybrids, plug-in hybrids and fuel cell electric vehicles — both have been caught flat-footed in the context of 2022,” — S&P Global said. .
The share of electric vehicles in the US more than doubled to 5.2 percent in the 12-month period ended Sept. 30, S&P Global said, citing registration data.
And the share of battery electric vehicles in California — the traditional bastion of Toyota and Honda — has reached 16 percent by the third quarter of 2022, according to Experian. Toyota held onto its No. 1 spot in California this year, but upstart Tesla was No. 2, Ford was No. 3 and Honda was No. 4, registration data shows.
“Data from S&P Global Mobility on the takeover of Tesla’s Model 3 and Y, Ford Mustang Mach-E, Hyundai Ioniq 5 and Chevrolet Bolt show strong customer takeovers for the two leading Japanese brands,” the data firm said.
Between October 2021 and September 2022, about 15 percent of Tesla’s gains came from Toyota and 13 percent from Honda, according to S&P Global. BMW accounted for nearly 7 percent of Tesla’s gains over the same period, and Mercedes-Benz accounted for 6.2 percent.
“The top five winners for the Model Y include the Lexus RX, Honda CR-V, Toyota RAV4, Honda Odyssey and Honda Accord,” notes S&P Global. “Meanwhile, the top five Model 3 wins are the Honda Civic, Honda Accord, Toyota Camry, Toyota RAV4 and Honda CR-V.”
Although electric vehicles still make up a relatively small percentage of the automotive market compared to internal combustion vehicles, the trajectory of electric vehicles is strong, notes S&P Global.
“Evaluating the market performance of electric vehicles requires viewing through a lens with a smaller volume than a traditional internal combustion engine [internal combustion engine] ” said Stephanie Brinley, senior analyst at S&P Global Mobility. “But the growth prospects for electric vehicles are good, the investment is huge, and the regulatory environment in the U.S. and around the world suggests that this is the solution for the future.”
S&P Global predicts that the number of EV nameplates will grow from 48 currently to 159 by the end of 2025. Tesla’s current 65 percent market share is expected to fall below 20 percent by 2025 as rivals launch new models.
Tesla has four of the top five electric car models this year, registration data shows. Kia EV6, Volkswagen ID.4, Nissan Leaf and Chevrolet Bolt also entered the top 10 by registration data.
— Larry P. Veleket contributed to this story.