In all major market segments, seasonally adjusted prices in April were higher year on year. According to March figures, vans again showed the highest performance of the year, followed by compact cars, and pickups lag behind the overall market.

Source: Manheim

In April, compared to March, wholesale prices for used cars (based on mixed, mileage and seasonally adjusted) decreased by 1% according to the index of used cars in Mannheim, which was 221.2, which is 14% more than a year ago .

The change without price adjustments in April increased by 2.9% compared to March, with the result that the average unadjusted price increased by 16.4% compared to last year.

The values ​​of the Manheim Market Report (MMR) marked a weekly rise in prices, which was the strongest since early April and slowed over the course of the month. Over the past four weeks, the index has risen 1.7% in three years. During April, the daily content of MMR, which is the average price difference relative to the current MMR, averaged 99%, which meant that market prices lagged slightly behind MMR values. The average daily sales conversion rate increased to 58.4%, but was lower than normal for the year. For example, in April 2019, the sales conversion rate averaged 60.6%. year.

Prices by car segments

In all major market segments, seasonally adjusted prices in April were higher year on year. According to March figures, vans again showed the highest performance of the year, followed by compact cars, and pickups lag behind the overall market. Compared to the month in half of the main segments, prices decreased with seasonal adjustments, with compacts decreased the most. Seasonal adjustments caused most of the decline. Half of the main market segments have increased in price compared to March, with full-size and sports cars growing the most.

Used retail sales are slowing in April, even as tax returns reach a critical mass: using the same set of dealerships selected to represent the country with Dealertrack, Manheim estimates, in April since March, retail sales have fallen by 13 % and did not show greater seasonal growth due to the tax return season.

Dealertrack estimates show that retail sales of used second-hand goods fell 21% from a year earlier. The issuance of tax refunds remains for about four weeks from the usual pace, but reached more than 50% paid in April. According to IRS statistics, by April 22, Manheim estimates, 68% of the probable amount of taxes this year had been paid, while for the same week in 2019, 97% had been paid. The average rate of return became a new record and increased by 5% compared to last year.

Using an estimate of the number of retail days used based on vAuto data, April ended 46 days, which is less than 47 days in late March, but 35 days higher than April 2021. Using Manheim sales and inventory data, Manheim estimates wholesale deliveries ended in 25 days in April, which is 16 days higher than April 2021 and 23 days higher than March.

In April, total sales of new passenger cars decreased by 19% compared to the same period last year, with one day more sales compared to April 2021. In terms of sales of new cars in April decreased by 2% compared to March. The April SAAR was 14.3 million, up 22% from last year’s 18.3 million, but up 7% from 13.4 million in March.

Commercial, rental, government buyers

Aggregate sales from major rental, commercial and government buyers in April were up more than 4% from a year earlier. Sales to rent decreased by 3% compared to last year, while sales to commercial fleets increased by 15% and sales to public fleets decreased by 4%. Including an estimate of fleet deliveries to dealers and manufacturers, Manheim estimates that other retail sales in April fell 21% year-over-year, leading to an estimated retail SAAR of 12.3 million, down 23% from 16 million in April last year. but up 6% from 11.6 million last month.

Rental rent increases per month, but less than last year: The average price of rental risk sold at auction in April rose 24% over last year. Rental rental prices rose 1.6% compared to March. The average mileage for renting risky units in April (64,400 miles) was down 22% from a year ago, but up 2% from March.

Consumer perspective

Consumer sentiment in April was mixed: according to the Conference Council, consumer sentiment fell 0.3% in April, erasing some March gains by 1.8%. The decline in confidence decreased by 8.7% compared to last year. Key indicators of the current situation and future expectations have moved in opposite directions as the current situation has deteriorated but future expectations have improved.

Plans to buy a car in the next six months have risen to the highest level in three months, but were slightly lower than a year ago. Plans to buy housing have improved slightly compared to March, but from year to year decreased significantly.

The University of Michigan’s sentiment index rose 9.8% in April as current conditions and expectations improved, with expectations jumping the most. In March, figures in Michigan reached an 11-year low. The Morning Consult daily index fell 1.3% in April, but recovered some of the losses it saw in the first half of the month. The Morning Consult index reached its lowest point for the March 14 pandemic, when gas prices first peaked.

Originally posted on Car remarketing

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